Politics
The math behind a Democratic wave — or a GOP upset
Axios·September 7, 2026·1 min read
Redistricting gives House Republicans a buffer against a 5-point Democratic wave, but Democrats are running 10 points ahead of 2024 in special elections, which could yield a 230-205 majority. GOP-drawn maps provide a net nine-seat advantage, but assumptions about the 2026 electorate may be shaky.
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