Macro Finance
Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading
Bloomberg Markets·October 8, 2026·1 min read
Longshot bets dominate trading on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, with about half of Kalshi's volume involving potential returns of at least 1,000%. These wagers have been costly: money staked on 'yes' longshots lost 15% on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket since early 2025, according to Bloomberg's Denitsa Tsekova.
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