Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016

Pollsters underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024, despite predicting a blue wave. Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by about 13 points, versus a final Silver Bulletin average of 8.9 points. The roughly 4-point gap mirrors the 2020 miss, per Lakshya Jain's analysis.