Brazil Election: Prediction Markets Outperform Polls in the First Round

In Brazil's first-round presidential election, Flávio Bolsonaro led incumbent Lula with 47.03% of the vote versus 45.16%, forcing an October 25 runoff. Prediction markets had shown Bolsonaro ahead since September, outperforming traditional polls that favored Lula, reigniting debate on their reliability despite being blocked in Brazil.