Politics
Lula bucks prediction markets with Brazilian presidential win
The Hill·October 26, 2026·1 min read
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff election on Sunday, defying prediction market odds that had him as an underdog. At noon EDT, his odds were 20.2% on Kalshi and 20.5% on Polymarket, while his opponent Flávio Bolsonaro led in the markets. Lula's victory marks a significant political upset.
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